Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.406597 2.560622 2.724228 2.911770 3.121835 3.351096 3.621904
2025-06-01 2.162566 2.369852 2.601467 2.882259 3.217396 3.609842 4.112361
2025-06-08 2.022262 2.260458 2.535989 2.883568 3.318375 3.856105 4.591753
2025-06-15 1.932503 2.194856 2.507026 2.914176 3.444663 4.133771 5.137326
2025-06-22 1.824867 2.096435 2.426248 2.867162 3.459691 4.259663 5.485835
2025-06-29 1.731507 2.007820 2.349091 2.814844 3.457518 4.355049 5.796276
2025-07-06 1.644626 1.921420 2.267970 2.749012 3.427592 4.403055 6.035020
2025-07-13 1.609656 1.898294 2.265928 2.787419 3.544513 4.675631 6.678466
2025-07-20 1.582290 1.882752 2.271792 2.835423 3.677410 4.985938 7.447386
2025-07-27 1.558421 1.869979 2.279719 2.885512 3.816221 5.321338 8.339240
2025-08-03 1.513213 1.826345 2.242662 2.867083 3.845971 5.476153 8.909114
2025-08-10 1.471328 1.785239 2.206762 2.847440 3.870983 5.624036 9.499369
2025-08-17 1.428314 1.741615 2.166249 2.819781 3.882888 5.754154 10.098356
2025-08-24 1.388098 1.700334 2.127199 2.791927 3.891978 5.880232 10.728392
2025-08-31 1.359507 1.673932 2.108028 2.793171 3.949817 6.106935 11.694594
2025-09-07 1.340928 1.660638 2.106932 2.822193 4.057793 6.449242 13.126678
2025-09-14 1.302804 1.618391 2.061533 2.777611 4.030224 6.505099 13.722718
2025-09-21 1.265453 1.576107 2.014518 2.727970 3.989585 6.527683 14.226032
2025-09-28 1.226559 1.530556 1.961138 2.665460 3.920861 6.480498 14.479118
2025-10-05 1.216070 1.525347 1.967811 2.701935 4.039840 6.873660 16.548506
2025-10-12 1.208390 1.523804 1.979730 2.747499 4.180060 7.343111 19.316947
2025-10-19 1.201429 1.522968 1.992514 2.795015 4.328593 7.864986 22.909773
2025-10-26 1.179165 1.498953 1.968516 2.777536 4.344061 8.046032 24.944167